20 July 2010

† Dilemma... Should I Go For GAMUDA †


Being a trader who don't have much money as compared to other heavy investors/traders, its not easy for me to make decision in such difficult time of economy downturn especially seeing Dow Jones Industrial Average moving up and down but at a bearish direction.


After SCOMIEN announced its dividend release, I'm sure many people are rushing into the market, hoping to gain a last minute profit before it drops this coming 28th July. I simply don't want to risk too much and I've sold all my shares at 1.60. Many of my professional and experienced friends told me that it will go up to 1.80 but... forget it.


Here's something that attracted my attention few weeks ago: GAMUDA. There were so many news saying that it is gonna be the leading construction group that holds the contract of building MRT in Kuala Lumpur next year 2011.


From my further research, yeah it is confirmed that GAMUDA group has submitted a proposal in January 2010. The proposal focuses in the benefit of having MRT in Kuala Lumpur. It is true that our Malaysia's current LRT system is totally stupid. Whats the point of having a non-centralized LRT system running around in KL city? STAR-LRT, PUTRA-LRT, KTM, MONORAIL... what the heck. Look at London, Paris and Barcelona. Their transit system is so well organized and it covers almost every part of the city. Come on Malaysia, you can do better than this! Source: The Edge, CIMB, OSK


So whats holding me back? Pardon my mistakes because I'm not professional. These are just my point of view.

1. The price is already at a high end. If the prediction about a double dip of economy down fall is true, then I'll be in a deep shit buying it in such high price. My concept is simple: buy low sell high. Gotta be patience to wait for such 'buy low' concept. Of course I can be wrong too. If it goes up and up and up, then its a great news to everyone.

2. I gotta admit that I'm not really good in Technical Analysis (TA) as I only use TA as my indicator. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) somehow isn't convincing me to execute a 'buy'. Further more, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is somehow another important indicator for me and it shows an overbought status.

3. Fundamental Analysis (FA) is part of my way of analyze it. I gotta say that, I wasn't that convinced enough about GAMUDA too. Its quarter report in April 2010 shows an EPS of 3.62. If say the current price is 3.36, it gives a PE of 24. Thats that is freaky high and I usually won't go for company with a PE of higher than 10.


Go or wait? I'm still in a dilemma...

2 comments:

  1. LRT system should be improve in Malaysia...

    thefye.com

    ReplyDelete
  2. improve first.. then build more..

    ReplyDelete